Analytica
Iceland Leading Indicator — Timid Growth
Analytica 20.08.2013 20:35 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- REYKJAVIK, Iceland, 2013-08-20 20:35 CEST (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Iceland Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) declined slightly in July to 102.5 from a revised June value of 102.7. The indicator published by independent advisory company Analytica, is designed to anticipate turning-points in economic activity relative to trend. The indicator continues to point to increased activity in the fall. For the year as a whole the indicator points to Icelandic growth to remain relatively weak. The current estimate for 2013 growth is still in the range of 1-2 per cent. It is not yet clear whether the CLI decline can be taken to signify a reversal of economic activity in 2014. Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The calculation of Analytica's CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD. There are six components of Analytica's CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of Consumer Confidence. For July five of the six underlying components are strengthening. The number of tourists visiting Iceland is still on the rise. However, there is a slight contraction of merchandise imports. Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The July value declines by 0.1 per cent to 102.5. This value serves as an indicator to economic activity six months later, i.e. January. A value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long term trend. Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2012-2013 Change in % Indication Index on month YOY for month ---------------------------------- 2012 July 102.3 0.2% 3.1% Jan. 2013 August 102.4 0.1% 2.9% Feb. September 102.3 -0.1% 2.7% March October 102.2 -0.1% 2.4% April November 102.1 -0.1% 2.0% May December 102.1 0.0% 1.6% June 2013 January 102.3 0.2% 1.4% July February 102.5 0.3% 1.4% August March 102.8 0.3% 1.4% Sept. April 103.0 0.2% 1.4% Oct. May 102.9 -0.1% 1.0% Nov. June 102.7 -0.2% 0.5% Dec. July 102.5 -0.1% 0.2% Jan. 2014 The August CLI is planned for release on 9/20/2013. CONTACT: Further information is provided by Analytica's CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson Tel. +354 5278890 - email: yngvi@analytica.is News Source: NASDAQ OMX 20.08.2013 Dissemination of a Corporate News, transmitted by DGAP - a company of EQS Group AG. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. DGAP's Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. Media archive at www.dgap-medientreff.de and www.dgap.de --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Language: English Company: Analytica United States Phone: Fax: E-mail: Internet: ISIN: US9902633034 WKN: End of Announcement DGAP News-Service ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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