Analytica
Iceland Leading Indicator – Growth Outlook Positive
DGAP-News: Analytica 2015-02-18 / 10:01 --------------------------------------------------------------------- REYKJAVIK, Iceland, 2015-02-18 10:01 CET (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Iceland Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) rose by 0.4 percent in January. This is the fifth consecutive rise. The CLI continues to hint at growth picking up in early 2015. As before, tourism growth along with increasing fish catches continue to serve as the main drivers behind the CLI rise. However, there appears less optimism among consumers. There are several external risk factors mainly in relation to the geopolitical situation, the developments in Ukraine and Greece and the economic outlook for Russia. Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The calculation of Analytica's CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD. There are six components of Analytica's CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of Consumer Confidence. For January all of the six underlying components are strengthening year on year. However, five of the six components rise on the previous month. Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The value for January rises by 0.4 percent on the month to 102.1. This value serves as an indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. July 2015. A value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long term trend. Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2014-2015 Change in % Indication ----------------- Index on month YOY for month 2014 January 101.3 -0.2% 0.8% July February 101.3 -0.1% 0.5% August March 101.3 0.0% 0.4% Sept. April 101.2 -0.1% 0.1% Oct. May 101.1 -0.1% 0.0% Nov. June 100.8 -0.2% -0.3% Dec. July 100.6 -0.3% -0.7% Jan. 2015 August 100.5 -0.1% -0.9% Feb. September 100.6 0.1% -1.0% March October 100.9 0.3% -0.9% April November 101.2 0.3% -0.4% May December 101.6 0.4% 0.1% June 2015 January 102.1 0.4% 0.7% July The February Composite Leading Indicator is scheduled for release on March 18, 2015. CONTACT: Further information is provided by Analytica's CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson Tel. +354 5278890 - email: yngvi@analytica.is News Source: NASDAQ OMX --------------------------------------------------------------------- 2015-02-18 Dissemination of a Corporate News, transmitted by DGAP - a service of EQS Group AG. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. The DGAP Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. Media archive at www.dgap-medientreff.de and www.dgap.de --------------------------------------------------------------------- Language: English Company: Analytica United States ISIN: US9902633034 End of News DGAP News-Service --------------------------------------------------------------------- 324423 2015-02-18
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