Analytica
Iceland Leading Indicator – First Drop in Eight Months
DGAP-News: Analytica
2015-05-19 / 10:02
---------------------------------------------------------------------
REYKJAVIK, Iceland, 2015-05-19 10:02 CEST (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Iceland
Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) dropped by 0.1 percent in April. This is the
first contraction for eight months.
The drop in the indicator can mostly be explained by fewer tourist arrivals for
April and by a drop in consumer confidence relative to the long term trend.
However, it is too early to draw conclusions from a single months drop in
tourist arrivals. There continue to be firm indications of increased growth of
domestic demand. Merchandise imports are growing at a brisk pace and debit card
turnover is on the rise. Domestic labor action may be among those factors
explaining the fall in tourist arrivals and decreased confidence levels. The
main risk factors to the still positive outlook include the possibility of
continued labor action and some external factors mainly in relation to the
geopolitical situation.
Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity
relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland.
The calculation of Analytica's CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD.
There are six components of Analytica's CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation
adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI
World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of
Consumer Confidence. For April all of the six underlying components are
strengthening year on year. However, three of the six components rise on the
previous month.
Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The
value for April drops by 0.1 percent on the month to 101.7. This value serves
as an indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. October
2015. A value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long term trend.
Table 1.
Analytica's CLI 2014-2015
Change in % Indication
Index underline underline; t;'>for month
;' '
style='fo style='fon
nt-size:11 t-size:11p
pt;'>on t;'>YOY
an>
2014
April 101.0 0.0 % 0.0 % Oct.
May 100.9 -0.1 % -0.2 % Nov.
June 100.7 -0.2 % -0.4 % Dec.
July 100.4 -0.3 % -0.8 % Jan. 2015
August 100.3 -0.1 % -1.0 % Feb.
September 100.4 0.1 % -1.1 % March
October 100.6 0.2 % -1.0 % April
November 100.9 0.3 % -0.6 % May
December 101.2 0.3 % -0.1 % June
2015
January 101.4 0.3 % 0.3 % July
February 101.7 0.2 % 0.6 % August
March 101.8 0.1 % 0.7 % Sept.
April 101.7 -0.1 % 0.7 % Oct.
The May Composite Leading Indicator is scheduled for release on June 18, 2015.
Further information is provided by Analytica's CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson
Tel. +354 5278890 - email: yngvi@analytica.is
News Source: NASDAQ OMX
---------------------------------------------------------------------
2015-05-19 Dissemination of a Corporate News, transmitted by DGAP - a
service of EQS Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.
The DGAP Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements,
Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases.
Media archive at www.dgap-medientreff.de and www.dgap.de
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Language: English
Company: Analytica
United States
ISIN: US9902633034
End of News DGAP News-Service
---------------------------------------------------------------------
359151 2015-05-19
Aktuelle News
Aktuelle Berichte
Keine Berichte gefunden
Anstehende Events
Keine Events gefunden
Webcasts
Keine Webcasts gefunden