Analytica
Iceland Leading Indicator — Slow Growth Ahead
Analytica 20.11.2013 22:05 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- REYKJAVIK, Iceland, 2013-11-20 22:05 CET (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Iceland Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) continued to rise in October. This is the fourth consecutive rise of the CLI following last month's revision. The indicator published by independent advisory company Analytica, is designed to anticipate turning-points in economic activity relative to trend. The indicator continues to point to slow growth in the months ahead. For the year 2013 as a whole the indicator points to Icelandic growth to remain relatively weak. The current estimate for 2013 growth is still in the range of 1-2 per cent. Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The calculation of Analytica's CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD. There are six components of Analytica's CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of Consumer Confidence. For October five of the six underlying components are strengthening year on year. However, two of the six components weaken on the previous month. Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The October value rises by 0.3 per cent to 102.6 from a revised September value of 102.3. This value serves as an indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. April. A value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long term trend. Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2012-2013 Change in % Indication ----------------- Index on month YOY for month ----------------------------------- 2012 October 101.7 -0.2% 2.1% April 2013 November 101.5 -0.2% 1.6% May December 101.5 -0.1% 1.3% June 2013 January 101.6 0.1% 1.1% July February 101.8 0.2% 1.0% August March 102.0 0.2% 1.0% Sept. April 102.1 0.1% 0.9% Oct. May 102.0 -0.1% 0.5% Nov. June 101.8 -0.2% 0.1% Dec. July 101.8 0.0% -0.1% Jan. 2014 August 102.0 0.2% 0.0% Feb. September 102.3 0.3% 0.5% March October 102.6 0.3% 0.9% April The November Composite Leading Indicator is scheduled for release on December 20, 2013. CONTACT: Further information is provided by Analytica's CEO Mr. Yngvi Hardarson Tel. +354 5278890 - email: yngvi@analytica.is News Source: NASDAQ OMX 20.11.2013 Dissemination of a Corporate News, transmitted by DGAP - a company of EQS Group AG. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. DGAP's Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. Media archive at www.dgap-medientreff.de and www.dgap.de --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Language: English Company: Analytica United States Phone: Fax: E-mail: Internet: ISIN: US9902633034 WKN: End of Announcement DGAP News-Service ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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