Analytica
Iceland Leading Indicator — Growth Outlook Positive
DGAP-News: Analytica / 20.02.2014 / 10:00 --------------------------------------------------------------------- REYKJAVIK, Iceland, 2014-02-20 10:00 CET (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Iceland Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) continued to rise in January. This is the seventh consecutive rise of the CLI. The indicator published by independent advisory company Analytica, is designed to anticipate turning-points in economic activity relative to trend. The indicator points to continued growth in the months ahead. Recent monthly economic indicators point to 2013 growth of around 3.0-3.5 per cent driven by growth in tourism. It looks like 2014 is starting on a strong note. There are indications that domestic demand is picking up and there is strong growth in tourist arrivals. However, there is a contraction in fish catches with capelin catches being highly uncertain. Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The calculation of Analytica's CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD. There are six components of Analytica's CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of Consumer Confidence. For January four of the six underlying components are strengthening year on year. However, three of the six components rise on the previous month. Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The January value rises by 0.2 per on the month cent to 102.9. This value serves as an indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. July. A value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long term trend. Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2013-2014 Change in % Indication ----------------- Index on month YOY for month 2013 January 101.3 0.1% 0.7% July February 101.5 0.2% 0.6% August March 101.6 0.2% 0.6% Sept. April 101.7 0.1% 0.4% Oct. May 101.5 -0.1% 0.0% Nov. June 101.4 -0.2% -0.4% Dec. July 101.5 0.1% -0.5% Jan. 2014 August 101.7 0.2% -0.4% Feb. September 102.1 0.4% 0.2% March October 102.4 0.3% 0.7% April November 102.5 0.2% 1.2% May December 102.7 0.1% 1.5% June 2014 January 102.9 0.2% 1.6% July The February Composite Leading Indicator is scheduled for release on March 20, 2014 Further information is provided by Analytica's CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson Tel. +354 5278890 - email: yngvi@analytica.is News Source: NASDAQ OMX End of Corporate News --------------------------------------------------------------------- 20.02.2014 Dissemination of a Corporate News, transmitted by DGAP - a company of EQS Group AG. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. DGAP's Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. Media archive at www.dgap-medientreff.de and www.dgap.de --------------------------------------------------------------------- Language: English Company: Analytica United States ISIN: US9902633034 End of News DGAP News-Service --------------------------------------------------------------------- 253455 20.02.2014
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