Analytica
Iceland Leading Indicator — GDP Contraction Ahead in 2014?
Analytica 20.09.2013 18:02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- REYKJAVIK, Iceland, 2013-09-20 18:02 CEST (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Iceland Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) declined in August to 101.7 for the fourth consecutive month. The indicator published by independent advisory company Analytica, is designed to anticipate turning-points in economic activity relative to trend. According to the indicator the probability of contraction in the months ahead has not been higher since 2007. For the year 2013 as a whole the indicator points to Icelandic growth to remain relatively weak. The current estimate for 2013 growth is still in the range of 1-2 per cent. Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The calculation of Analytica's CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD. There are six components of Analytica's CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of Consumer Confidence. For August three of the six underlying components are weakening year on year. However, five of the six components weaken on the previous month. Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The August value declines by 0.3 per cent to 101.7 from a downwardly revised July value of 102.0. This value serves as an indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. February. A value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long term trend. Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2012-2013 Change in % Indication ----------------- Index on month YOY for month ----------------------------------- 2012 August 102.5 0.1% 3.0% Feb. 2013 September 102.4 0.0% 2.8% March October 102.3 -0.1% 2.5% April November 102.2 -0.1% 2.1% May December 102.2 0.0% 1.7% June 2013 January 102.4 0.2% 1.6% July February 102.7 0.3% 1.5% August March 102.9 0.2% 1.5% Sept. April 103.0 0.1% 1.4% Oct. May 102.8 -0.2% 0.9% Nov. June 102.4 -0.4% 0.2% Dec. July 102.0 -0.3% -0.3% Jan. 2014 August 101.7 -0.3% -0.7% Feb. The September CLI is planned for release on 10/21/2013. Further information is provided by Analytica's CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson Tel. +354 5278890 - email: yngvi@analytica.is News Source: NASDAQ OMX 20.09.2013 Dissemination of a Corporate News, transmitted by DGAP - a company of EQS Group AG. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. DGAP's Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. Media archive at www.dgap-medientreff.de and www.dgap.de --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Language: English Company: Analytica United States Phone: Fax: E-mail: Internet: ISIN: US9902633034 WKN: End of Announcement DGAP News-Service ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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