Analytica
Iceland Leading Indicator — Decreased Risk of Contraction
Analytica 21.10.2013 19:27 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- REYKJAVIK, Iceland, 2013-10-21 19:27 CEST (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Iceland Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) rose in September and the August value has been revised to a slight increase on the previous month. The indicator, published by independent advisory company Analytica, is designed to anticipate turning-points in economic activity relative to trend. Following the August revision the indicator no longer points to a contraction in the months ahead. For the year 2013 as a whole the indicator points to Icelandic growth to remain relatively weak. The current estimate for 2013 growth is still in the range of 1-2 per cent. Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The calculation of Analytica's CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD. There are six components of Analytica's CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of Consumer Confidence. For September five of the six underlying components are strengthening year on year. However, three of the six components weaken on the previous month. Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The September value rises by 0.3 per cent to 102.4 from a revised August value of 102.1. This value serves as an indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. March. A value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long term trend. Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2012-2013 Change in % Indication ----------------- Index on month YOY for month ----------------------------------- 2012 September 102.0 -0.1% 2.5% March 2013 October 101.8 -0.1% 2.2% April November 101.7 -0.2% 1.7% May December 101.6 0.0% 1.4% June 2013 January 101.8 0.1% 1.2% July February 102.0 0.2% 1.1% August March 102.2 0.2% 1.1% Sept. April 102.3 0.1% 1.0% Oct. May 102.2 -0.1% 0.6% Nov. June 102.0 -0.2% 0.2% Dec. July 101.9 0.0% -0.1% Jan. 2014 August 102.1 0.1% 0.0% Feb. September 102.4 0.3% 0.4% March The October CLI is planned for release on 11/20/2013. CONTACT: Further information is provided by Analytica's CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson Tel. +354 5278890 - email: yngvi@analytica.is News Source: NASDAQ OMX 21.10.2013 Dissemination of a Corporate News, transmitted by DGAP - a company of EQS Group AG. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. DGAP's Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. Media archive at www.dgap-medientreff.de and www.dgap.de --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Language: English Company: Analytica United States Phone: Fax: E-mail: Internet: ISIN: US9902633034 WKN: End of Announcement DGAP News-Service ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aktuelle News
Aktuelle Berichte
Keine Berichte gefunden
Anstehende Events
Keine Events gefunden
Webcasts
Keine Webcasts gefunden