Analytica
Iceland Leading Indicator – A Slightly More Positive View
Analytica 21.06.2013 11:00 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- REYKJAVIK, Iceland, 2013-06-21 11:00 CEST (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Iceland Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) continued to rise in May to 103.8 from a revised April value of 103.5. The indicator published by independent advisory company Analytica, is designed to anticipate turning-points in economic activity relative to trend. Currently the indicator points to increased activity in the fall but slow growth until then. For the year as a whole the indicator points to Icelandic growth to remain relatively weak. After accounting for the preliminary Q1 growth figures of the Statistical Bureau of Iceland the 2013 growth might be in the range of 1-2 per cent. The indicator components for May appear to be fairly positive. Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The calculation of Analytica's CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD. There are six components of Analytica's CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of Consumer Confidence. For May all of the underlying components are strengthening. The number of tourists visiting Iceland is still on the rise. Also fish catches are improving, retail spending is increasing and imports are growing. See Appendix, Chart A1. Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The May value rises by 0.3 per cent to 103.8. This value serves as an indicator to economic activity six months later, i.e. November. A value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long term trend. Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2012-2013 Change in % Indication ---------------- Index on month YOY for month ---------------------------------- 2012 May 101.7 0.2% 3.1% Nov. June 101.9 0.2% 3.1% Dec. July 102.1 0.2% 3.0% Jan. 2013 August 102.2 0.1% 2.8% Feb. September 102.1 -0.1% 2.6% March October 102.0 -0.2% 2.2% April November 101.8 -0.2% 1.8% May December 101.8 0.0% 1.4% June 2013 January 102.0 0.3% 1.3% July February 102.5 0.4% 1.4% August March 103.0 0.5% 1.7% Sept. April 103.5 0.5% 1.9% Oct. May 103.8 0.3% 2.0% Nov. The June CLI is planned for release on 7/17/2013. Further information is provided by Analytica's CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson Tel. +354 5278890 - email: yngvi@analytica.is News Source: NASDAQ OMX 21.06.2013 Dissemination of a Corporate News, transmitted by DGAP - a company of EQS Group AG. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. DGAP's Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. Media archive at www.dgap-medientreff.de and www.dgap.de --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Language: English Company: Analytica United States Phone: Fax: E-mail: Internet: ISIN: US9902633034 WKN: End of Announcement DGAP News-Service ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aktuelle News
Aktuelle Berichte
Keine Berichte gefunden
Anstehende Events
Keine Events gefunden
Webcasts
Keine Webcasts gefunden